Tested strategies Verdict: No edge

Does correlation and pairs trading actually work?

By Otto Research 2 min read Tested across 17 years, with real costs

Pairs trading takes two instruments that usually move together, waits for them to diverge, and buys the laggard while selling the leader, expecting the gap to close. In forex it is applied to correlated pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and in indices to related markets.

The claim is that correlations are stable enough for divergences to be mean-reverting.

We tested pairs and correlation-based strategies across 17 years of data with real trading costs, and found no edge. Correlations between currency pairs drifted enough that the divergences the strategy traded were often the start of a new relationship rather than a temporary gap, and the two-sided cost of a pairs trade doubled the spread.

The reason is that retail pairs have no economic mechanism forcing them back together, unlike two share classes of one company. A correlation is an average, not a tether.

If you trade it anyway, test the stability of the correlation itself over rolling windows before trusting any divergence in it.

The ones that survived

See what Otto trades instead.

Most strategies do not survive an honest test. Otto is built on the few that did, and every trade is recorded live on Karnek.