Tested strategies Verdict: No edge

Do London open and session breakout strategies actually work?

By Otto Research 2 min read Tested across 17 years, with real costs

Session breakout strategies mark the range of a quiet period, usually the Asian session, and trade a break of it when London or New York opens. The London open breakout is the best known. Variants use the first hour's range or a fixed window.

The claim is that the London open brings volume that resolves the overnight range in one direction, and that the direction of the break tends to persist.

We tested session breakouts across the standard windows and instruments on 17 years of data with real trading costs, and found no edge. The break of the range was followed by a reversal as often as by a continuation, and the wide spreads around the open ate a large share of what the successful breaks earned.

The reason is that the open is where the day's direction is contested, and the first move out of the range is as likely to be the losing side's attempt as the winning side's.

If you trade it anyway, measure the spread at the moment the rule fires, since that is when it is widest, and count false breaks honestly.

The ones that survived

See what Otto trades instead.

Most strategies do not survive an honest test. Otto is built on the few that did, and every trade is recorded live on Karnek.